Housing prices have not recovered
Overall, housing prices have not recovered in 2010. On balance, there is a slight decline, albeit with regional differences. Compared to the market peak in 2006, selling prices are 7% lower on average.
Dynamics remain absent, supply is too high
The failure of prices to recover is largely a consequence of absent market dynamics. For two consecutive years, there have been relatively few transactions, and, as a result, supply has increased to more than 180,000 dwellings. It is also taking longer to sell housing, on average 136 days. A considerable portion of the housing supply has been on sale for over a year.
More new housing sold
In 2010, the number of new dwellings sold was approximately 25,000, almost double that of 2009. Most housing was sold in the cheaper market segment. Furthermore, prices are on average 10% to 15% lower than the market peak in 2008, which has an effect on revenue capacity.
New building production substantially down
The number of new dwellings produced in 2010 fell, a clear effect of the economic crisis. In the coming years, this figure will probably remain low for two reasons: the number of dwellings under construction in 2009 and 2010 fell
sharply, and the number of building permits being issued is substantially lower than before. The new building production of rented housing is also under increasing pressure.
Investment capacity of housing corporations under pressure
Housing corporations are faced with considerably higher costs as a result of two developments. Firstly, part of their property may no longer be financed via contracts of suretyship because of European guidelines. Secondly, owners of
rented housing (including private landlords) will have to pay a portion of the rent supplement. The amount that corporations must pay will be much higher than the ‘Vogelaar tax’, which has been abolished this year. Costs will rise considerably more than rental income, putting investment under pressure. It may well be that corporations will (must) sell off parts of their portfolio, an action that has the support of the Rutte cabinet.
Residential care: separation of residence and care
Residential care concepts are favourable, as long as they focus on the real estate. The care component is dependent on health policy. Both the amount and the assignment of personal individual budgets are now under pressure, and the outcome will have consequences for the financing of concepts with a dominant care component.
Contraction is on the map
More than ten years after the first regions in the Netherlands were faced with population contraction, the situation now seems to be getting the attention it requires. Contraction is not necessarily a problem, so long as it recognised and
leads to regional alignment and collaboration. Other regions will experience contraction in future, and this should have top priority in spatial policy. The detrimental consequences of contraction can only be resolved or prevented through collaboration and coordination at the planning stage.